Hörður Í. 1–5 Berserkir: Result & Stats | Cup

Hörður Í.

1 – 5

Berserkir

4/13/2019

Cup · 1st RoundOlísvöllurinn (Hnífsdalur, Ísafjarðabær)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hörður Í.16%

×Draw14%

Berserkir69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hörður Í.Expected goals in this matchBerserkir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

3.67

Hörður Í.

1.83

Berserkir

3.67

Berserkir creates 101% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

2.67

4.67

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Hörður Í.

1.00

Berserkir

2.67

allows per match

Hörður Í.

4.67

Berserkir

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hörður Í.+0.00on par

Berserkir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hörður Í. ↓

Berserkir →

0–00%

0–12%

0–23%

0–34%

0–43%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–37%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–46%

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

78%22%4.5

61%39%

Double chance

Hörður Í. or draw

31%

Hörður Í. or Berserkir

86%

Draw or Berserkir

84%

Winning margin

Hörður Í. wins by 2+

Berserkir wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Hörður Í. 1+ goals

84%

Hörður Í. 2+ goals

54%

Hörður Í. 3+ goals

28%

Berserkir 1+ goals

97%

Berserkir 2+ goals

87%

Berserkir 3+ goals

68%

Draw no bet

Hörður Í. (draw refunded)

19%

Berserkir (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hörður Í. at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

Berserkir away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hörður Í. attack 1.00 + Berserkir defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Berserkir attack 2.67 + Hörður Í. defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Hörður Í. scores more

16%

level

14%

Berserkir scores more

69%

Berserkir at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Berserkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff