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Hope Internacional U20 vs Parana S.T.C. U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Hope Internacional U20
Hope Internacional U20
FT
4 – 1
Parana S.T.C. U20
Parana S.T.C. U20
5/10/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 11Estádio Atílio Gionédis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hope Internacional U2060%
×Draw20%
Parana S.T.C. U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hope Internacional U20
2.27
Parana S.T.C. U20
1.25

Hope Internacional U20 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hope Internacional U20
2.05
Parana S.T.C. U20
1.50

allows per match

Hope Internacional U20
1.00
Parana S.T.C. U20
2.50

finishing

Hope Internacional U20+0.00on par
Parana S.T.C. U20+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hope Internacional U20 ↓

Parana S.T.C. U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hope Internacional U20 or draw
80%
Hope Internacional U20 or Parana S.T.C. U20
80%
Draw or Parana S.T.C. U20
40%

Winning margin

Hope Internacional U20 wins by 2+
38%
Parana S.T.C. U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hope Internacional U20 1+ goals
90%
Hope Internacional U20 2+ goals
66%
Hope Internacional U20 3+ goals
39%
Parana S.T.C. U20 1+ goals
71%
Parana S.T.C. U20 2+ goals
36%
Parana S.T.C. U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hope Internacional U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Parana S.T.C. U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hope Internacional U20 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Parana S.T.C. U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hope Internacional U20 attack 2.05 + Parana S.T.C. U20 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.27

Parana S.T.C. U20 attack 1.50 + Hope Internacional U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hope Internacional U20 scores more
60%
level
20%
Parana S.T.C. U20 scores more
20%

Hope Internacional U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hope Internacional U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Hope Internacional U20 4–1 Parana S.T.C. U20

Hope Internacional U20 beat Parana S.T.C. U20 4-1 in Paranaense U20 on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Atílio Gionédis in Campo Largo, Paraná.