Hope Internacional U20 3–1 Campo Mourao U20

Hope Internacional U20

FT

3 – 1

Campo Mourao U20

5/25/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 13Estádio Atílio Gionédis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hope Internacional U2080%

×Draw12%

Campo Mourao U208%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hope Internacional U20Expected goals in this matchCampo Mourao U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.19

0.92

Hope Internacional U20

3.19

Campo Mourao U20

0.92

Hope Internacional U20 creates 247% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

2.05

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Hope Internacional U20

2.05

Campo Mourao U20

0.83

allows per match

Hope Internacional U20

1.00

Campo Mourao U20

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hope Internacional U20+0.00on par

Campo Mourao U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hope Internacional U20 ↓

Campo Mourao U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Hope Internacional U20 or draw

92%

Hope Internacional U20 or Campo Mourao U20

88%

Draw or Campo Mourao U20

20%

Winning margin

Hope Internacional U20 wins by 2+

62%

Campo Mourao U20 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Hope Internacional U20 1+ goals

96%

Hope Internacional U20 2+ goals

82%

Hope Internacional U20 3+ goals

60%

Campo Mourao U20 1+ goals

60%

Campo Mourao U20 2+ goals

23%

Campo Mourao U20 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hope Internacional U20 (draw refunded)

91%

Campo Mourao U20 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hope Internacional U20 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Campo Mourao U20 away — creates 0.83, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hope Internacional U20 attack 2.05 + Campo Mourao U20 defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.19

Campo Mourao U20 attack 0.83 + Hope Internacional U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Hope Internacional U20 scores more

80%

level

12%

Campo Mourao U20 scores more

8%

Hope Internacional U20 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Hope Internacional U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff