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Hoogland vs Hsc 21 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Hoogland
Hoogland
CANC
00:00
Hsc 21
Hsc 21
4/5/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 28Sportpark Langenoord (Hoogland)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hoogland38%
×Draw25%
Hsc 2137%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoogland
1.46
Hsc 21
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

creates per match

Hoogland
1.40
Hsc 21
1.17

allows per match

Hoogland
1.73
Hsc 21
1.52

finishing

Hoogland+0.00on par
Hsc 21+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoogland ↓

Hsc 21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hoogland or draw
63%
Hoogland or Hsc 21
75%
Draw or Hsc 21
62%

Winning margin

Hoogland wins by 2+
18%
Hsc 21 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hoogland 1+ goals
77%
Hoogland 2+ goals
43%
Hoogland 3+ goals
18%
Hsc 21 1+ goals
77%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
42%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hoogland (draw refunded)
50%
Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoogland at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Hsc 21 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoogland attack 1.40 + Hsc 21 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hsc 21 attack 1.17 + Hoogland defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hoogland scores more
38%
level
25%
Hsc 21 scores more
37%

Hoogland at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hoogland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hoogland host Hsc 21

April 5, 2020: Hoogland take on Hsc 21 in Derde Divisie - Sunday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hoogland host Hsc 21 at Sportpark Langenoord (Hoogland).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.