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Hoogland vs Hercules — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Hoogland
Hoogland
CANC
12:00
Hercules
Hercules
4/18/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hoogland29%
×Draw23%
Hercules48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoogland
1.32
Hercules
1.77

Hercules creates 34% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

creates per match

Hoogland
1.40
Hercules
1.80

allows per match

Hoogland
1.73
Hercules
1.24

finishing

Hoogland+0.00on par
Hercules+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoogland ↓

Hercules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hoogland or draw
52%
Hoogland or Hercules
77%
Draw or Hercules
71%

Winning margin

Hoogland wins by 2+
12%
Hercules wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Hoogland 1+ goals
73%
Hoogland 2+ goals
38%
Hoogland 3+ goals
15%
Hercules 1+ goals
83%
Hercules 2+ goals
53%
Hercules 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hoogland (draw refunded)
37%
Hercules (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoogland at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Hercules away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoogland attack 1.40 + Hercules defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Hercules attack 1.80 + Hoogland defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hoogland scores more
29%
level
23%
Hercules scores more
48%

Hercules at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hoogland face Hercules (Derde Divisie - Sunday)

Derde Divisie - Sunday returns with Hoogland hosting Hercules. Match starts April 18, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.