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Hoogland vs Groene Ster — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Hoogland
Hoogland
CANC
12:00
Groene Ster
Groene Ster
5/2/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hoogland44%
×Draw24%
Groene Ster32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoogland
1.61
Groene Ster
1.33

Hoogland creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 81 away

creates per match

Hoogland
1.40
Groene Ster
0.94

allows per match

Hoogland
1.73
Groene Ster
1.83

finishing

Hoogland+0.00on par
Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoogland ↓

Groene Ster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hoogland or draw
68%
Hoogland or Groene Ster
76%
Draw or Groene Ster
56%

Winning margin

Hoogland wins by 2+
22%
Groene Ster wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hoogland 1+ goals
80%
Hoogland 2+ goals
48%
Hoogland 3+ goals
22%
Groene Ster 1+ goals
74%
Groene Ster 2+ goals
38%
Groene Ster 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hoogland (draw refunded)
58%
Groene Ster (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoogland at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoogland attack 1.40 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + Hoogland defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hoogland scores more
44%
level
24%
Groene Ster scores more
32%

Hoogland at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hoogland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hoogland face Groene Ster (Derde Divisie - Sunday)

Derde Divisie - Sunday returns with Hoogland hosting Groene Ster. Match starts May 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.