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Hoogland vs FC Lienden — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Hoogland
Hoogland
CANC
00:00
FC Lienden
FC Lienden
4/19/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 30Sportpark Langenoord (Hoogland)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hoogland49%
×Draw24%
FC Lienden27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoogland
1.75
FC Lienden
1.25

Hoogland creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hoogland
1.40
FC Lienden
0.78

allows per match

Hoogland
1.73
FC Lienden
2.11

finishing

Hoogland+0.00on par
FC Lienden+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoogland ↓

FC Lienden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hoogland or draw
73%
Hoogland or FC Lienden
76%
Draw or FC Lienden
51%

Winning margin

Hoogland wins by 2+
27%
FC Lienden wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hoogland 1+ goals
83%
Hoogland 2+ goals
52%
Hoogland 3+ goals
25%
FC Lienden 1+ goals
71%
FC Lienden 2+ goals
36%
FC Lienden 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hoogland (draw refunded)
64%
FC Lienden (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoogland at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

FC Lienden away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoogland attack 1.40 + FC Lienden defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC Lienden attack 0.78 + Hoogland defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hoogland scores more
49%
level
24%
FC Lienden scores more
27%

Hoogland at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hoogland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hoogland face FC Lienden (Derde Divisie - Sunday)

Derde Divisie - Sunday returns with Hoogland hosting FC Lienden. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hoogland host FC Lienden at Sportpark Langenoord (Hoogland).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.