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Hoogeveen vs Sparta Nijkerk — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hoogeveen
Hoogeveen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
11/22/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 14Sportpark Bentinckspark Veld 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hoogeveen32%
×Draw23%
Sparta Nijkerk46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoogeveen
1.51
Sparta Nijkerk
1.85

Sparta Nijkerk creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 97 away

creates per match

Hoogeveen
1.44
Sparta Nijkerk
1.87

allows per match

Hoogeveen
1.82
Sparta Nijkerk
1.58

finishing

Hoogeveen+0.00on par
Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoogeveen ↓

Sparta Nijkerk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hoogeveen or draw
54%
Hoogeveen or Sparta Nijkerk
77%
Draw or Sparta Nijkerk
68%

Winning margin

Hoogeveen wins by 2+
15%
Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Hoogeveen 1+ goals
78%
Hoogeveen 2+ goals
44%
Hoogeveen 3+ goals
19%
Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
84%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
55%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hoogeveen (draw refunded)
41%
Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoogeveen at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Sparta Nijkerk away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoogeveen attack 1.44 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sparta Nijkerk attack 1.87 + Hoogeveen defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hoogeveen scores more
32%
level
23%
Sparta Nijkerk scores more
46%

Sparta Nijkerk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Hoogeveen 0–1 Sparta Nijkerk

Sparta Nijkerk beat Hoogeveen 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Bentinckspark Veld 7 in Hoogeveen.