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Hoogeveen vs Rijnvogels — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hoogeveen
Hoogeveen
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Rijnvogels
Rijnvogels
3/23/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 26Sportpark Bentinckspark Veld 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hoogeveen36%
×Draw22%
Rijnvogels42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoogeveen
1.71
Rijnvogels
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hoogeveen
1.44
Rijnvogels
1.88

allows per match

Hoogeveen
1.82
Rijnvogels
1.97

finishing

Hoogeveen+0.00on par
Rijnvogels+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoogeveen ↓

Rijnvogels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hoogeveen or draw
58%
Hoogeveen or Rijnvogels
78%
Draw or Rijnvogels
64%

Winning margin

Hoogeveen wins by 2+
18%
Rijnvogels wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hoogeveen 1+ goals
82%
Hoogeveen 2+ goals
51%
Hoogeveen 3+ goals
24%
Rijnvogels 1+ goals
84%
Rijnvogels 2+ goals
55%
Rijnvogels 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hoogeveen (draw refunded)
46%
Rijnvogels (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoogeveen at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Rijnvogels away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoogeveen attack 1.44 + Rijnvogels defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rijnvogels attack 1.88 + Hoogeveen defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hoogeveen scores more
36%
level
22%
Rijnvogels scores more
42%

Rijnvogels at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rijnvogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Hoogeveen 0–5 Rijnvogels

Rijnvogels beat Hoogeveen 5-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Bentinckspark Veld 7 in Hoogeveen.