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Hoogeveen vs Hsc 21 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hoogeveen
Hoogeveen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Hsc 21
Hsc 21
2/4/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 21Sportpark Bentinckspark Veld 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hoogeveen45%
×Draw22%
Hsc 2133%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoogeveen
1.93
Hsc 21
1.61

Hoogeveen creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hoogeveen
1.44
Hsc 21
1.41

allows per match

Hoogeveen
1.82
Hsc 21
2.41

finishing

Hoogeveen+0.00on par
Hsc 21+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoogeveen ↓

Hsc 21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hoogeveen or draw
67%
Hoogeveen or Hsc 21
78%
Draw or Hsc 21
55%

Winning margin

Hoogeveen wins by 2+
25%
Hsc 21 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hoogeveen 1+ goals
85%
Hoogeveen 2+ goals
57%
Hoogeveen 3+ goals
30%
Hsc 21 1+ goals
80%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
48%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hoogeveen (draw refunded)
58%
Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoogeveen at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Hsc 21 away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoogeveen attack 1.44 + Hsc 21 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.93

Hsc 21 attack 1.41 + Hoogeveen defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hoogeveen scores more
45%
level
22%
Hsc 21 scores more
33%

Hoogeveen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hoogeveen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Hoogeveen 4–1 Hsc 21

Hoogeveen beat Hsc 21 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Bentinckspark Veld 7 in Hoogeveen.