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Hoogeveen vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hoogeveen
Hoogeveen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
DEM
DEM
11/12/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 12Sportpark Bentinckspark Veld 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hoogeveen44%
×Draw23%
DEM33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoogeveen
1.81
DEM
1.54

Hoogeveen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hoogeveen
1.44
DEM
1.26

allows per match

Hoogeveen
1.82
DEM
2.18

finishing

Hoogeveen+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoogeveen ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hoogeveen or draw
67%
Hoogeveen or DEM
77%
Draw or DEM
56%

Winning margin

Hoogeveen wins by 2+
24%
DEM wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hoogeveen 1+ goals
84%
Hoogeveen 2+ goals
54%
Hoogeveen 3+ goals
27%
DEM 1+ goals
79%
DEM 2+ goals
45%
DEM 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hoogeveen (draw refunded)
57%
DEM (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoogeveen at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

DEM away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoogeveen attack 1.44 + DEM defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.81

DEM attack 1.26 + Hoogeveen defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hoogeveen scores more
44%
level
23%
DEM scores more
33%

Hoogeveen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hoogeveen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Hoogeveen 1–2 DEM

DEM beat Hoogeveen 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Bentinckspark Veld 7 in Hoogeveen.