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HooGee vs SalPa — Suomen Cup 2018

HooGee
HooGee
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
SalPa
SalPa
5/31/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundMatinkylä 2 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

HooGee15%
×Draw14%
SalPa71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HooGee
1.70
SalPa
3.60

SalPa creates 112% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

HooGee
2.60
SalPa
2.60

allows per match

HooGee
4.60
SalPa
0.80

finishing

HooGee+0.00on par
SalPa+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HooGee ↓

SalPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

HooGee or draw
29%
HooGee or SalPa
86%
Draw or SalPa
85%

Winning margin

HooGee wins by 2+
7%
SalPa wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

HooGee 1+ goals
82%
HooGee 2+ goals
51%
HooGee 3+ goals
24%
SalPa 1+ goals
97%
SalPa 2+ goals
86%
SalPa 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

HooGee (draw refunded)
18%
SalPa (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HooGee at home — creates 2.60, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

SalPa away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HooGee attack 2.60 + SalPa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.70

SalPa attack 2.60 + HooGee defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 3.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

HooGee scores more
15%
level
14%
SalPa scores more
71%

SalPa at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "SalPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HooGee vs SalPa

SalPa beat HooGee 6-0 in Suomen Cup on May 31, 2023.

The match was played at Matinkylä 2 Tekonurmi in Espoo.