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HooGee vs MPS — Suomen Cup 2018

HooGee
HooGee
FT
0 – 5
MPS
MPS
2/19/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Preliminary RoundMatinkylän urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

HooGee22%
×Draw16%
MPS62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HooGee
2.08
MPS
3.44

MPS creates 65% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

HooGee
2.60
MPS
2.29

allows per match

HooGee
4.60
MPS
1.57

finishing

HooGee+0.00on par
MPS+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HooGee ↓

MPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

HooGee or draw
38%
HooGee or MPS
84%
Draw or MPS
78%

Winning margin

HooGee wins by 2+
11%
MPS wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

HooGee 1+ goals
87%
HooGee 2+ goals
61%
HooGee 3+ goals
34%
MPS 1+ goals
97%
MPS 2+ goals
85%
MPS 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

HooGee (draw refunded)
26%
MPS (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HooGee at home — creates 2.60, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

MPS away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HooGee attack 2.60 + MPS defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.08

MPS attack 2.29 + HooGee defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 3.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

HooGee scores more
22%
level
16%
MPS scores more
62%

MPS at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "MPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: HooGee 0–5 MPS

MPS beat HooGee 5-0 in Suomen Cup on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Matinkylän urheilupuisto in Esbo.