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Honvéd II vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Honvéd II
Honvéd II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
9/11/2022NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 8Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Honvéd II53%
×Draw22%
Kecskeméti TE II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honvéd II
2.03
Kecskeméti TE II
1.36

Honvéd II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

creates per match

Honvéd II
1.82
Kecskeméti TE II
1.18

allows per match

Honvéd II
1.54
Kecskeméti TE II
2.24

finishing

Honvéd II+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honvéd II ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Honvéd II or draw
74%
Honvéd II or Kecskeméti TE II
78%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE II
47%

Winning margin

Honvéd II wins by 2+
31%
Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Honvéd II 1+ goals
87%
Honvéd II 2+ goals
60%
Honvéd II 3+ goals
33%
Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
74%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
39%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Honvéd II (draw refunded)
67%
Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honvéd II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honvéd II attack 1.82 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.03

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.18 + Honvéd II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Honvéd II scores more
53%
level
22%
Kecskeméti TE II scores more
26%

Honvéd II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Honvéd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Honvéd II 2–0 Kecskeméti TE II

Honvéd II beat Kecskeméti TE II 2-0 in NB III - Northwest on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ in Budapest.