Honvéd II 1–1 BKV Előre: Result & Stats

Honvéd II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

BKV Előre

4/20/2025

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 25Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Honvéd II47%

×Draw23%

BKV Előre30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Honvéd IIExpected goals in this matchBKV Előre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.40

Honvéd II

1.80

BKV Előre

1.40

Honvéd II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.78

creates per match

1.47

1.33

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Honvéd II

1.78

BKV Előre

1.47

allows per match

Honvéd II

1.33

BKV Előre

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Honvéd II+0.00on par

BKV Előre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honvéd II ↓

BKV Előre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Honvéd II or draw

70%

Honvéd II or BKV Előre

77%

Draw or BKV Előre

53%

Winning margin

Honvéd II wins by 2+

25%

BKV Előre wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Honvéd II 1+ goals

83%

Honvéd II 2+ goals

54%

Honvéd II 3+ goals

27%

BKV Előre 1+ goals

75%

BKV Előre 2+ goals

41%

BKV Előre 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Honvéd II (draw refunded)

61%

BKV Előre (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honvéd II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

BKV Előre away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honvéd II attack 1.78 + BKV Előre defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.80

BKV Előre attack 1.47 + Honvéd II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Honvéd II scores more

47%

level

23%

BKV Előre scores more

30%

Honvéd II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Honvéd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff