Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Honvéd II vs Bánk — NB III - Northwest 2019

Honvéd II
Honvéd II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bánk
Bánk
Jozsa 15'
10/22/2022NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 14Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Honvéd II60%
×Draw20%
Bánk21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honvéd II
2.32
Bánk
1.30

Honvéd II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

creates per match

Honvéd II
1.82
Bánk
1.06

allows per match

Honvéd II
1.54
Bánk
2.82

finishing

Honvéd II+0.00on par
Bánk+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honvéd II ↓

Bánk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Honvéd II or draw
79%
Honvéd II or Bánk
80%
Draw or Bánk
40%

Winning margin

Honvéd II wins by 2+
38%
Bánk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Honvéd II 1+ goals
90%
Honvéd II 2+ goals
67%
Honvéd II 3+ goals
40%
Bánk 1+ goals
73%
Bánk 2+ goals
37%
Bánk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Honvéd II (draw refunded)
74%
Bánk (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honvéd II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

Bánk away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honvéd II attack 1.82 + Bánk defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.32

Bánk attack 1.06 + Honvéd II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Honvéd II scores more
60%
level
20%
Bánk scores more
21%

Honvéd II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Honvéd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Jozsa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Honvéd II vs Bánk

Bánk beat Honvéd II 1-0 in NB III - Northwest on October 22, 2022.

Goals: Jozsa (15').

The match was played at Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ in Budapest.