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Honka vs VJS — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Honka
Honka
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
VJS
VJS
5/11/2025Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 4Tapiolan Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Honka75%
×Draw14%
VJS11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka
3.23
VJS
1.24

Honka creates 160% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

creates per match

Honka
4.56
VJS
1.80

allows per match

Honka
0.67
VJS
1.90

finishing

Honka+0.00on par
VJS+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka ↓

VJS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Honka or draw
89%
Honka or VJS
86%
Draw or VJS
25%

Winning margin

Honka wins by 2+
56%
VJS wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Honka 1+ goals
96%
Honka 2+ goals
82%
Honka 3+ goals
61%
VJS 1+ goals
71%
VJS 2+ goals
35%
VJS 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Honka (draw refunded)
87%
VJS (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka at home — creates 4.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

VJS away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka attack 4.56 + VJS defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 3.23

VJS attack 1.80 + Honka defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Honka scores more
75%
level
14%
VJS scores more
11%

Honka at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: Honka 1–2 VJS

VJS beat Honka 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto in Esbo.