Honka 2–0 Turku PS: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

Honka

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Turku PS

Lucas Kaufmann 77'

M. Kandji 42'

7/21/2018

Veikkausliiga · Round 20Tapiolan Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Honka57%

×Draw23%

Turku PS20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HonkaExpected goals in this matchTurku PS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.95

Honka

1.79

Turku PS

0.95

Honka creates 88% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 37 away

1.64

creates per match

0.97

0.92

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Honka

1.64

Turku PS

0.97

allows per match

Honka

0.92

Turku PS

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Honka+0.00on par

Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka ↓

Turku PS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Honka or draw

80%

Honka or Turku PS

77%

Draw or Turku PS

43%

Winning margin

Honka wins by 2+

32%

Turku PS wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Honka 1+ goals

83%

Honka 2+ goals

53%

Honka 3+ goals

26%

Turku PS 1+ goals

61%

Turku PS 2+ goals

25%

Turku PS 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Honka (draw refunded)

74%

Turku PS (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.92 · 84 matches

Turku PS away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka attack 1.64 + Turku PS defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

Turku PS attack 0.97 + Honka defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Honka scores more

57%

level

23%

Turku PS scores more

20%

Honka at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Miro Tenho

39'

Ben McKendry

42'

M. Kandji

52'

A. Kabashi← J. Perovuo

57'

Elias Ahde

65'

J. Peräaho← S. Rähmönen

69'

Rasmus Holma

70'

J. Virtanen← N. Blomqvist

73'

R. Sjöroos← E. Ahde

75'

J. Korhonen← A. Mäkijärvi

77'

85'

87'

88'

90'

90'

Shots

Statistics

HonkaTurku

Overview

10Total Shots4

10Corners6

10Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots4

5On Target1

5Off Target3

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1

Veikkausliiga: Honka 2–0 Turku PS

Honka beat Turku PS 2-0 in Veikkausliiga on July 21, 2018.

Goals: M. Kandji (42'), Lucas Kaufmann (77').

The match was played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto in Espoo.

Honka vs Turku PS — Veikkausliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Veikkausliiga: Honka 2–0 Turku PS