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Honka vs NJS — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2026

Honka
Honka
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NJS
NJS
5/10/2015Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 3Tapiolan Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Honka74%
×Draw15%
NJS11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka
2.67
NJS
0.91

Honka creates 193% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

creates per match

Honka
2.63
NJS
0.94

allows per match

Honka
0.88
NJS
2.71

finishing

Honka+0.00on par
NJS+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka ↓

NJS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Honka or draw
89%
Honka or NJS
85%
Draw or NJS
26%

Winning margin

Honka wins by 2+
53%
NJS wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Honka 1+ goals
93%
Honka 2+ goals
74%
Honka 3+ goals
49%
NJS 1+ goals
60%
NJS 2+ goals
23%
NJS 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Honka (draw refunded)
88%
NJS (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

NJS away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka attack 2.63 + NJS defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.67

NJS attack 0.94 + Honka defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Honka scores more
74%
level
15%
NJS scores more
11%

Honka at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Honka vs NJS

Honka beat NJS 2-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on May 10, 2015.

The match was played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto in Esbo.