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Honka vs MyPa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2026

Honka
Honka
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
MyPa
MyPa
8/2/2025Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 16Tapiolan Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Honka80%
×Draw11%
MyPa8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka
3.54
MyPa
1.13

Honka creates 213% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 45 away

creates per match

Honka
4.56
MyPa
1.58

allows per match

Honka
0.67
MyPa
2.53

finishing

Honka+0.00on par
MyPa+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka ↓

MyPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Honka or draw
92%
Honka or MyPa
89%
Draw or MyPa
20%

Winning margin

Honka wins by 2+
63%
MyPa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Honka 1+ goals
97%
Honka 2+ goals
86%
Honka 3+ goals
66%
MyPa 1+ goals
68%
MyPa 2+ goals
31%
MyPa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Honka (draw refunded)
91%
MyPa (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka at home — creates 4.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

MyPa away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka attack 4.56 + MyPa defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 3.54

MyPa attack 1.58 + Honka defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Honka scores more
80%
level
11%
MyPa scores more
8%

Honka at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: Honka 6–0 MyPa

Honka beat MyPa 6-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto in Espoo (Esbo).