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Honka vs Mariehamn — Suomen Cup 2018

Honka
Honkaadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
8/23/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Semi-finalsTapiolan Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Honka25%
×Draw23%
Mariehamn52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka
1.19
Mariehamn
1.84

Mariehamn creates 55% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

Honka
1.33
Mariehamn
2.40

allows per match

Honka
1.28
Mariehamn
1.04

finishing

Honka+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Honka or draw
48%
Honka or Mariehamn
77%
Draw or Mariehamn
75%

Winning margin

Honka wins by 2+
10%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Honka 1+ goals
70%
Honka 2+ goals
33%
Honka 3+ goals
12%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
84%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
55%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Honka (draw refunded)
32%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka attack 1.33 + Mariehamn defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Mariehamn attack 2.40 + Honka defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Honka scores more
25%
level
23%
Mariehamn scores more
52%

Mariehamn at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Honka 1–0 Mariehamn

Honka beat Mariehamn 1-0 in Suomen Cup on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto in Esbo.