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Honka vs JPS — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2025

Honka
Honka
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
JPS
JPS
N. Saarikivi 65', 50'
R. Pyyskanen 48'
V. Bela 39'
6/8/2025Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 8Tapiolan Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Honka92%
×Draw5%
JPS2%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka
4.50
JPS
0.73

Honka creates 516% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Honka
4.56
JPS
0.78

allows per match

Honka
0.67
JPS
4.44

finishing

Honka+0.00on par
JPS+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka ↓

JPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Honka or draw
98%
Honka or JPS
95%
Draw or JPS
8%

Winning margin

Honka wins by 2+
81%
JPS wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Honka 1+ goals
99%
Honka 2+ goals
93%
Honka 3+ goals
79%
JPS 1+ goals
52%
JPS 2+ goals
17%
JPS 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Honka (draw refunded)
98%
JPS (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka at home — creates 4.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

JPS away — creates 0.78, concedes 4.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka attack 4.56 + JPS defence 4.44 → ÷2 → 4.50

JPS attack 0.78 + Honka defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Honka scores more
92%
level
5%
JPS scores more
2%

Honka at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
V. Bela
48'
R. Pyyskanen
50'
N. Saarikivi
58'
P. Kopperoinen← P. Kopperoinen
60'
B. Heikkinen← B. Heikkinen
60'
M. Mahmood← M. Mahmood
65'
N. Saarikivi
71'
S. Arponen← S. Mantila
71'
T. Kinnunen← T. Kinnunen
73'
V. Vanttaja
74'
N. Saarikivi← A. Jannes
77'
V. Pyyny← A. Aro
77'
A. Ikaheimo← A. Ikaheimo
82'
A. Heiskanen← A. Heiskanen
82'
K. Liikonen← K. Liikonen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Honka 4 – 0 JPS

Honka beat JPS 4-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on June 8, 2025.

Goals: V. Bela (39'), R. Pyyskanen (48'), N. Saarikivi (50', 65').

The match was played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto in Espoo (Esbo).