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Honka vs Inter Turku — Suomen Cup 2018

Honka
Honka
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Inter Turku
Inter Turku
2/6/2021Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 2Eerikkilä Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Honka24%
×Draw24%
Inter Turku53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka
1.09
Inter Turku
1.75

Inter Turku creates 61% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

creates per match

Honka
1.33
Inter Turku
2.23

allows per match

Honka
1.28
Inter Turku
0.86

finishing

Honka+0.00on par
Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka ↓

Inter Turku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Honka or draw
47%
Honka or Inter Turku
76%
Draw or Inter Turku
76%

Winning margin

Honka wins by 2+
9%
Inter Turku wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Honka 1+ goals
66%
Honka 2+ goals
30%
Honka 3+ goals
10%
Inter Turku 1+ goals
83%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
52%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Honka (draw refunded)
31%
Inter Turku (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka attack 1.33 + Inter Turku defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Inter Turku attack 2.23 + Honka defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Honka scores more
24%
level
24%
Inter Turku scores more
53%

Inter Turku at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Honka 0–2 Inter Turku

Inter Turku beat Honka 2-0 in Suomen Cup on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Eerikkilä Tekonurmi in Eerikkilä.