Honka 1–1 HJK Helsinki: Result & Stats

Honka

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

HJK Helsinki

7/1/2023

Veikkausliiga · Round 13Tapiolan Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Honka38%

×Draw27%

HJK Helsinki36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HonkaExpected goals in this matchHJK Helsinki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.26

Honka

1.31

HJK Helsinki

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 118 away

1.64

creates per match

1.60

0.92

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Honka

1.64

HJK Helsinki

1.60

allows per match

Honka

0.92

HJK Helsinki

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Honka+0.00on par

HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka ↓

HJK Helsinki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Honka or draw

64%

Honka or HJK Helsinki

73%

Draw or HJK Helsinki

62%

Winning margin

Honka wins by 2+

17%

HJK Helsinki wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Honka 1+ goals

73%

Honka 2+ goals

38%

Honka 3+ goals

14%

HJK Helsinki 1+ goals

72%

HJK Helsinki 2+ goals

36%

HJK Helsinki 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Honka (draw refunded)

52%

HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.92 · 84 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.99 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka attack 1.64 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.31

HJK Helsinki attack 1.60 + Honka defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Honka scores more

38%

level

27%

HJK Helsinki scores more

36%

Honka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff