Honka 1–1 HJK Helsinki: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Honka

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

HJK Helsinki

2/27/2020

Suomen Cup · Group Stage - 6Esport Ratiopharm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Honka18%

×Draw22%

HJK Helsinki61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HonkaExpected goals in this matchHJK Helsinki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.96

Honka

0.96

HJK Helsinki

1.96

HJK Helsinki creates 104% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

1.33

creates per match

2.65

1.28

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Honka

1.33

HJK Helsinki

2.65

allows per match

Honka

1.28

HJK Helsinki

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Honka+0.00on par

HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka ↓

HJK Helsinki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Honka or draw

39%

Honka or HJK Helsinki

78%

Draw or HJK Helsinki

82%

Winning margin

Honka wins by 2+

6%

HJK Helsinki wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Honka 1+ goals

62%

Honka 2+ goals

25%

Honka 3+ goals

7%

HJK Helsinki 1+ goals

86%

HJK Helsinki 2+ goals

58%

HJK Helsinki 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Honka (draw refunded)

23%

HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 2.65, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka attack 1.33 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.96

HJK Helsinki attack 2.65 + Honka defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Honka scores more

18%

level

22%

HJK Helsinki scores more

61%

HJK Helsinki at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff