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Honka vs EBK — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

Honka
Honka
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
EBK
EBK
4/24/2024Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 4Tapiola 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Honka69%
×Draw16%
EBK15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka
2.83
EBK
1.25

Honka creates 126% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

creates per match

Honka
2.10
EBK
1.19

allows per match

Honka
1.30
EBK
3.56

finishing

Honka+0.00on par
EBK+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka ↓

EBK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Honka or draw
85%
Honka or EBK
84%
Draw or EBK
31%

Winning margin

Honka wins by 2+
49%
EBK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Honka 1+ goals
94%
Honka 2+ goals
77%
Honka 3+ goals
53%
EBK 1+ goals
71%
EBK 2+ goals
36%
EBK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Honka (draw refunded)
83%
EBK (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

EBK away — creates 1.19, concedes 3.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka attack 2.10 + EBK defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.83

EBK attack 1.19 + Honka defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Honka scores more
69%
level
16%
EBK scores more
15%

Honka at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Honka vs EBK

Honka and EBK drew 0-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Tapiola 1 Tekonurmi in Espoo.