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Honka Akatemia vs SalPa — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

Honka Akatemia
Honka Akatemia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SalPa
SalPa
9/29/2021Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 12Tapiola 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Honka Akatemia41%
×Draw23%
SalPa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka Akatemia
1.65
SalPa
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 53 away

creates per match

Honka Akatemia
1.93
SalPa
1.64

allows per match

Honka Akatemia
1.45
SalPa
1.38

finishing

Honka Akatemia+0.00on par
SalPa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka Akatemia ↓

SalPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Honka Akatemia or draw
64%
Honka Akatemia or SalPa
77%
Draw or SalPa
59%

Winning margin

Honka Akatemia wins by 2+
21%
SalPa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Honka Akatemia 1+ goals
81%
Honka Akatemia 2+ goals
49%
Honka Akatemia 3+ goals
23%
SalPa 1+ goals
79%
SalPa 2+ goals
45%
SalPa 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)
53%
SalPa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka Akatemia at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

SalPa away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka Akatemia attack 1.93 + SalPa defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.65

SalPa attack 1.64 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Honka Akatemia scores more
41%
level
23%
SalPa scores more
36%

Honka Akatemia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Honka Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Honka Akatemia vs SalPa

Honka Akatemia beat SalPa 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Tapiola 1 Tekonurmi in Espoo.