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Honka Akatemia vs KäPa — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

Honka Akatemia
Honka Akatemia
FT
2 – 1
KäPa
KäPa
8/20/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 17Tapiolan Monitoimiareena Oy (Espoo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Honka Akatemia54%
×Draw23%
KäPa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka Akatemia
1.88
KäPa
1.16

Honka Akatemia creates 62% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 22 away

creates per match

Honka Akatemia
1.93
KäPa
0.86

allows per match

Honka Akatemia
1.45
KäPa
1.82

finishing

Honka Akatemia+0.00on par
KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka Akatemia ↓

KäPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Honka Akatemia or draw
77%
Honka Akatemia or KäPa
77%
Draw or KäPa
46%

Winning margin

Honka Akatemia wins by 2+
31%
KäPa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Honka Akatemia 1+ goals
85%
Honka Akatemia 2+ goals
56%
Honka Akatemia 3+ goals
29%
KäPa 1+ goals
69%
KäPa 2+ goals
32%
KäPa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)
70%
KäPa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka Akatemia at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

KäPa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka Akatemia attack 1.93 + KäPa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.88

KäPa attack 0.86 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Honka Akatemia scores more
54%
level
23%
KäPa scores more
23%

Honka Akatemia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Honka Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: Honka Akatemia 2–1 KäPa

Honka Akatemia beat KäPa 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on August 20, 2018.

The match was played at Tapiolan Monitoimiareena Oy (Espoo).