Honka Akatemia 1–1 HJS Akatemia: Result & Stats

Honka Akatemia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

HJS Akatemia

9/25/2021

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 12Tapiola 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Honka Akatemia47%

×Draw23%

HJS Akatemia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Honka AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchHJS Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.45

Honka Akatemia

1.84

HJS Akatemia

1.45

Honka Akatemia creates 27% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 80 away

1.93

creates per match

1.45

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Honka Akatemia

1.93

HJS Akatemia

1.45

allows per match

Honka Akatemia

1.45

HJS Akatemia

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Honka Akatemia+0.00on par

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka Akatemia ↓

HJS Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Honka Akatemia or draw

69%

Honka Akatemia or HJS Akatemia

77%

Draw or HJS Akatemia

53%

Winning margin

Honka Akatemia wins by 2+

26%

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Honka Akatemia 1+ goals

84%

Honka Akatemia 2+ goals

55%

Honka Akatemia 3+ goals

28%

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals

77%

HJS Akatemia 2+ goals

42%

HJS Akatemia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)

60%

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka Akatemia at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

HJS Akatemia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka Akatemia attack 1.93 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.84

HJS Akatemia attack 1.45 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Honka Akatemia scores more

47%

level

23%

HJS Akatemia scores more

31%

Honka Akatemia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Honka Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff