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Honka Akatemia vs FC Espoo — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

Honka Akatemia
Honka Akatemia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Espoo
FC Espoo
8/1/2019Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 14Tapiola 1 Tekonurmi (Espoo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Honka Akatemia47%
×Draw23%
FC Espoo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka Akatemia
1.83
FC Espoo
1.42

Honka Akatemia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 30 away

creates per match

Honka Akatemia
1.93
FC Espoo
1.40

allows per match

Honka Akatemia
1.45
FC Espoo
1.73

finishing

Honka Akatemia+0.00on par
FC Espoo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka Akatemia ↓

FC Espoo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Honka Akatemia or draw
70%
Honka Akatemia or FC Espoo
77%
Draw or FC Espoo
53%

Winning margin

Honka Akatemia wins by 2+
26%
FC Espoo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Honka Akatemia 1+ goals
84%
Honka Akatemia 2+ goals
54%
Honka Akatemia 3+ goals
28%
FC Espoo 1+ goals
76%
FC Espoo 2+ goals
41%
FC Espoo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)
61%
FC Espoo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka Akatemia at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

FC Espoo away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka Akatemia attack 1.93 + FC Espoo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.83

FC Espoo attack 1.40 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Honka Akatemia scores more
47%
level
23%
FC Espoo scores more
30%

Honka Akatemia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Honka Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: Honka Akatemia 2–1 FC Espoo

Honka Akatemia beat FC Espoo 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on August 1, 2019.

The match was played at Tapiola 1 Tekonurmi (Espoo).