Höngg 1–2 YF Juventus: Result & Stats

Höngg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

YF Juventus

10/4/2025

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Sportplatz Hönggerberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Höngg28%

×Draw24%

YF Juventus48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HönggExpected goals in this matchYF Juventus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.69

Höngg

1.23

YF Juventus

1.69

YF Juventus creates 37% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 45 away

1.37

creates per match

1.93

1.45

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Höngg

1.37

YF Juventus

1.93

allows per match

Höngg

1.45

YF Juventus

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Höngg+0.00on par

YF Juventus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Höngg ↓

YF Juventus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Höngg or draw

52%

Höngg or YF Juventus

76%

Draw or YF Juventus

72%

Winning margin

Höngg wins by 2+

11%

YF Juventus wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Höngg 1+ goals

71%

Höngg 2+ goals

35%

Höngg 3+ goals

13%

YF Juventus 1+ goals

82%

YF Juventus 2+ goals

50%

YF Juventus 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Höngg (draw refunded)

37%

YF Juventus (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Höngg at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

YF Juventus away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Höngg attack 1.37 + YF Juventus defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

YF Juventus attack 1.93 + Höngg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Höngg scores more

28%

level

24%

YF Juventus scores more

48%

YF Juventus at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "YF Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff