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Höngg vs Winterthur II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Höngg
Höngg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Winterthur II
Winterthur II
3/16/20241. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Sportplatz Hönggerberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Höngg36%
×Draw25%
Winterthur II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Höngg
1.43
Winterthur II
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 88 away

creates per match

Höngg
1.37
Winterthur II
1.58

allows per match

Höngg
1.45
Winterthur II
1.49

finishing

Höngg+0.00on par
Winterthur II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Höngg ↓

Winterthur II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Höngg or draw
60%
Höngg or Winterthur II
75%
Draw or Winterthur II
64%

Winning margin

Höngg wins by 2+
17%
Winterthur II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Höngg 1+ goals
76%
Höngg 2+ goals
42%
Höngg 3+ goals
17%
Winterthur II 1+ goals
78%
Winterthur II 2+ goals
45%
Winterthur II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Höngg (draw refunded)
47%
Winterthur II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Höngg at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Winterthur II away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Höngg attack 1.37 + Winterthur II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Winterthur II attack 1.58 + Höngg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Höngg scores more
36%
level
25%
Winterthur II scores more
40%

Winterthur II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Winterthur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 3: Höngg 1–2 Winterthur II

Winterthur II beat Höngg 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Hönggerberg in Zürich.