Höngg 0–2 Mendrisio: Result & Stats

Höngg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mendrisio

11/18/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Sportplatz Hönggerberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Höngg44%

×Draw25%

Mendrisio31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HönggExpected goals in this matchMendrisio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.21

Höngg

1.50

Mendrisio

1.21

Höngg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 45 away

1.37

creates per match

0.98

1.45

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Höngg

1.37

Mendrisio

0.98

allows per match

Höngg

1.45

Mendrisio

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Höngg+0.00on par

Mendrisio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Höngg ↓

Mendrisio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Höngg or draw

69%

Höngg or Mendrisio

75%

Draw or Mendrisio

56%

Winning margin

Höngg wins by 2+

22%

Mendrisio wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Höngg 1+ goals

78%

Höngg 2+ goals

44%

Höngg 3+ goals

19%

Mendrisio 1+ goals

70%

Mendrisio 2+ goals

34%

Mendrisio 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Höngg (draw refunded)

59%

Mendrisio (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Höngg at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Mendrisio away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Höngg attack 1.37 + Mendrisio defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mendrisio attack 0.98 + Höngg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Höngg scores more

44%

level

25%

Mendrisio scores more

31%

Höngg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Höngg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff