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Höngg vs Köniz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Höngg
Höngg
FT
0 – 0
Köniz
Köniz
10/23/20211. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Sportanlage Utogrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Höngg49%
×Draw25%
Köniz26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Höngg
1.60
Köniz
1.10

Höngg creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 43 away

creates per match

Höngg
1.54
Köniz
1.35

allows per match

Höngg
0.85
Köniz
1.67

finishing

Höngg+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Höngg ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Höngg or draw
74%
Höngg or Köniz
75%
Draw or Köniz
51%

Winning margin

Höngg wins by 2+
25%
Köniz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Höngg 1+ goals
80%
Höngg 2+ goals
47%
Höngg 3+ goals
22%
Köniz 1+ goals
67%
Köniz 2+ goals
30%
Köniz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Höngg (draw refunded)
65%
Köniz (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Höngg at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Höngg attack 1.54 + Köniz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Köniz attack 1.35 + Höngg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Höngg scores more
49%
level
25%
Köniz scores more
26%

Höngg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Höngg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Höngg vs Köniz

Höngg and Köniz drew 0-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Sportanlage Utogrund in Zürich.