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Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh vs Sai Gon — V.League 1 2019

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Sai Gon
Sai Gon
7/30/2022V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 10Sân Vận động tỉnh Hà Tĩnh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh46%
×Draw26%
Sai Gon28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.50
Sai Gon
1.11

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh creates 35% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 42 away

creates per match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.14
Sai Gon
1.12

allows per match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.10
Sai Gon
1.86

finishing

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh+0.00on par
Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh ↓

Sai Gon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh or draw
72%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh or Sai Gon
74%
Draw or Sai Gon
54%

Winning margin

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh wins by 2+
23%
Sai Gon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1+ goals
78%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2+ goals
44%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 3+ goals
19%
Sai Gon 1+ goals
67%
Sai Gon 2+ goals
30%
Sai Gon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (draw refunded)
62%
Sai Gon (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 78 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh attack 1.14 + Sai Gon defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sai Gon attack 1.12 + Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh scores more
46%
level
26%
Sai Gon scores more
28%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 3–4 Sai Gon

Sai Gon beat Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 4-3 in V.League 1 on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Sân Vận động tỉnh Hà Tĩnh in Hà Tĩnh.