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Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh vs Ha Noi — V.League 1 2019

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Ha Noi
Ha Noi
5/13/2024V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 18Sân Vận động tỉnh Hà Tĩnh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh32%
×Draw27%
Ha Noi41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.16
Ha Noi
1.35

Ha Noi creates 16% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 89 away

creates per match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.14
Ha Noi
1.61

allows per match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.10
Ha Noi
1.18

finishing

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh+0.00on par
Ha Noi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh ↓

Ha Noi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh or draw
59%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh or Ha Noi
73%
Draw or Ha Noi
68%

Winning margin

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh wins by 2+
13%
Ha Noi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1+ goals
69%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2+ goals
32%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 3+ goals
11%
Ha Noi 1+ goals
74%
Ha Noi 2+ goals
39%
Ha Noi 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (draw refunded)
44%
Ha Noi (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 78 matches

Ha Noi away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh attack 1.14 + Ha Noi defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ha Noi attack 1.61 + Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh scores more
32%
level
27%
Ha Noi scores more
41%

Ha Noi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2–2 Ha Noi

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh and Ha Noi drew 2-2 in V.League 1 on May 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sân Vận động tỉnh Hà Tĩnh in Hà Tĩnh.