Hong Kong W 3–1 Fiji W: Result & Stats

Hong Kong W

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Fiji W

L. Wei 75'

H. K. Anke Leong 39'

W. Cheung 34'

S. Naweni 23'

6/6/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hong Kong W58%

×Draw18%

Fiji W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hong Kong WExpected goals in this matchFiji W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.69

Hong Kong W

2.69

Fiji W

1.69

Hong Kong W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

2.75

creates per match

1.75

1.63

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Hong Kong W

2.75

Fiji W

1.75

allows per match

Hong Kong W

1.63

Fiji W

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hong Kong W+0.00on par

Fiji W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hong Kong W ↓

Fiji W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Hong Kong W or draw

77%

Hong Kong W or Fiji W

82%

Draw or Fiji W

42%

Winning margin

Hong Kong W wins by 2+

38%

Fiji W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hong Kong W 1+ goals

93%

Hong Kong W 2+ goals

74%

Hong Kong W 3+ goals

49%

Fiji W 1+ goals

82%

Fiji W 2+ goals

50%

Fiji W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hong Kong W (draw refunded)

71%

Fiji W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hong Kong W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Fiji W away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hong Kong W attack 2.75 + Fiji W defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.69

Fiji W attack 1.75 + Hong Kong W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hong Kong W scores more

58%

level

18%

Fiji W scores more

23%

Hong Kong W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hong Kong W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

S. Naweni

34'

W. Cheung

39'

H. K. Anke Leong

49'

75'

L. Wei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff