Hong Kong 1–2 Tajikistan: Result & Stats

Hong Kong

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tajikistan

1/4/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Sheikh Zayed Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hong Kong53%

×Draw29%

Tajikistan18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hong KongExpected goals in this matchTajikistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.64

Hong Kong

1.31

Tajikistan

0.64

Hong Kong creates 105% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

1.21

creates per match

0.63

0.64

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Hong Kong

1.21

Tajikistan

0.63

allows per match

Hong Kong

0.64

Tajikistan

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hong Kong+0.00on par

Tajikistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hong Kong ↓

Tajikistan →

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Hong Kong or draw

82%

Hong Kong or Tajikistan

71%

Draw or Tajikistan

47%

Winning margin

Hong Kong wins by 2+

25%

Tajikistan wins by 2+

Team goals

Hong Kong 1+ goals

73%

Hong Kong 2+ goals

38%

Hong Kong 3+ goals

14%

Tajikistan 1+ goals

47%

Tajikistan 2+ goals

14%

Tajikistan 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Hong Kong (draw refunded)

74%

Tajikistan (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hong Kong at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Tajikistan away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hong Kong attack 1.21 + Tajikistan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tajikistan attack 0.63 + Hong Kong defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hong Kong scores more

53%

level

29%

Tajikistan scores more

18%

Hong Kong at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hong Kong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff