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Hong Kong vs Myanmar — Friendlies 2026

Hong Kong
Hong Kong
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Myanmar
Myanmar
Tsz-Chun Law 37'
Ming-Him Sun 35'
9/21/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Mong Kok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hong Kong70%
×Draw20%
Myanmar10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hong Kong
1.97
Myanmar
0.58

Hong Kong creates 240% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hong Kong
1.21
Myanmar
0.53

allows per match

Hong Kong
0.64
Myanmar
2.73

finishing

Hong Kong+0.00on par
Myanmar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hong Kong ↓

Myanmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hong Kong or draw
90%
Hong Kong or Myanmar
80%
Draw or Myanmar
30%

Winning margin

Hong Kong wins by 2+
44%
Myanmar wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Hong Kong 1+ goals
86%
Hong Kong 2+ goals
58%
Hong Kong 3+ goals
31%
Myanmar 1+ goals
44%
Myanmar 2+ goals
12%
Myanmar 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Hong Kong (draw refunded)
88%
Myanmar (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hong Kong at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Myanmar away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hong Kong attack 1.21 + Myanmar defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.97

Myanmar attack 0.53 + Hong Kong defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Hong Kong scores more
70%
level
20%
Myanmar scores more
10%

Hong Kong at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hong Kong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
Ming-Him Sun
37'
Tsz-Chun Law
Hong
Myanmar
J. Andersen
Manager: J. Andersen
A. Hey
Manager: A. Hey

Friendlies: Hong Kong 2–0 Myanmar

Hong Kong beat Myanmar 2-0 in Friendlies on September 21, 2022.

Goals: Ming-Him Sun (35'), Tsz-Chun Law (37').

The match was played at Mong Kok Stadium in Hong Kong.