Honduras W 2–4 Dominican Republic W: Result & Stats

Honduras W

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Dominican Republic W

B. Murillo 53' (pen)

L. Puerto 14'

J. Slump 76'

J. Jackson 69'

K. Gonzalez 31'

S. van Diemen 11'

5/29/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesEstadio Carlos Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Honduras W38%

×Draw25%

Dominican Republic W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Honduras WExpected goals in this matchDominican Republic W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.40

Honduras W

1.44

Dominican Republic W

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.80

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Honduras W

1.00

Dominican Republic W

1.00

allows per match

Honduras W

1.80

Dominican Republic W

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Honduras W+0.00on par

Dominican Republic W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honduras W ↓

Dominican Republic W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Honduras W or draw

63%

Honduras W or Dominican Republic W

75%

Draw or Dominican Republic W

62%

Winning margin

Honduras W wins by 2+

18%

Dominican Republic W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Honduras W 1+ goals

76%

Honduras W 2+ goals

42%

Honduras W 3+ goals

18%

Dominican Republic W 1+ goals

75%

Dominican Republic W 2+ goals

41%

Dominican Republic W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Honduras W (draw refunded)

51%

Dominican Republic W (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honduras W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Dominican Republic W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honduras W attack 1.00 + Dominican Republic W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dominican Republic W attack 1.00 + Honduras W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Honduras W scores more

38%

level

25%

Dominican Republic W scores more

37%

Honduras W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Honduras W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

S. van Diemen

14'

L. Puerto

31'

K. Gonzalez

32'

53'

B. MurilloPenalty

69'

J. Jackson

76'

J. Slump

Honduras

Dominican

12

14

22

19

2

7

15

⚽

Gonzalez

20

⚽

13

9

11

1

3

2

5

4

⚽

10

20

6

13

9

⚽

Puerto

8

Tobias

Manager: F. Banegas

Manager: H. Parra

Dominican Republic W substitutes

1Pena5Colon4Dionicio3Leon6Bruno16Slump8Oviedo18Luperon17Jackson10Vallecillo21Then