Honduras 0–2 Iceland: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Honduras

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Iceland

1/18/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1DRV PNK Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Honduras48%

×Draw27%

Iceland24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HondurasExpected goals in this matchIceland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.91

Honduras

1.40

Iceland

0.91

Honduras creates 54% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 24 away

1.22

creates per match

0.92

0.89

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Honduras

1.22

Iceland

0.92

allows per match

Honduras

0.89

Iceland

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Honduras+0.00on par

Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honduras ↓

Iceland →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Honduras or draw

76%

Honduras or Iceland

73%

Draw or Iceland

52%

Winning margin

Honduras wins by 2+

23%

Iceland wins by 2+

Team goals

Honduras 1+ goals

75%

Honduras 2+ goals

41%

Honduras 3+ goals

17%

Iceland 1+ goals

60%

Iceland 2+ goals

23%

Iceland 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Honduras (draw refunded)

66%

Iceland (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Honduras at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Iceland away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Honduras attack 1.22 + Iceland defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.40

Iceland attack 0.92 + Honduras defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Honduras scores more

48%

level

27%

Iceland scores more

24%

Honduras at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Honduras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff