Honduras U20 vs France U20 — League #490 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Honduras U2013%
France U2070%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
France U20 creates 150% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over67
- Under33
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Honduras U20 ↓
Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Honduras U20 at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches
France U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Honduras U20 attack 0.33 + France U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00
France U20 attack 1.67 + Honduras U20 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 70%?"
France U20 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 70% does not mean "France U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small samplePossession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Honduras U20 host France U20 on Sunday, 28 May 2023 at 21:00. The match is part of the League #490 2026/2027 season.
League #490: Honduras U20 1–3 France U20
France U20 beat Honduras U20 3-1 in League #490 on May 28, 2023.
Goals: O. Ramos (15'), A. Virginius (41', 60'), F. Nzouango (77').
Honduras U20 controlled possession (51%) and registered 19 shots to 17.
The match was played at Estadio Único Diego Armando Maradona in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.