Honduras U20 1–0 Costa Rica U20: Result & Stats

Honduras U20

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Costa Rica U20

J. Contreras 59' (pen)

6/22/2022

League #537 · Group Stage - 3Estadio Yankel Rosenthal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Honduras U2070%

×Draw19%

Costa Rica U2011%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Honduras U20Expected goals in this matchCosta Rica U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.72

Honduras U20

2.13

Costa Rica U20

0.72

Honduras U20 creates 196% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

0.25

1.20

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Honduras U20

3.00

Costa Rica U20

0.25

allows per match

Honduras U20

1.20

Costa Rica U20

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Honduras U20+0.00on par

Costa Rica U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honduras U20 ↓

Costa Rica U20 →

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Honduras U20 or draw

89%

Honduras U20 or Costa Rica U20

81%

Draw or Costa Rica U20

30%

Winning margin

Honduras U20 wins by 2+

45%

Costa Rica U20 wins by 2+

Team goals

Honduras U20 1+ goals

88%

Honduras U20 2+ goals

63%

Honduras U20 3+ goals

35%

Costa Rica U20 1+ goals

51%

Costa Rica U20 2+ goals

16%

Costa Rica U20 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Honduras U20 (draw refunded)

86%

Costa Rica U20 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Honduras U20 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Costa Rica U20 away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Honduras U20 attack 3.00 + Costa Rica U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Costa Rica U20 attack 0.25 + Honduras U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Honduras U20 scores more

70%

level

19%

Costa Rica U20 scores more

11%

Honduras U20 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Honduras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

J. Macías← E. Rocha

56'

E. Arzú← M. Aceituno

56'

S. Johnson← K. Ríos

59'

J. ContrerasPenalty

65'

F. Alemán← D. Rodriguez

65'

E. Escoe← J. Bennette

65'

A. Salmerón← T. Arias

69'

K. Güiti← J. Contreras

70'

K. Kolton← I. Castillo

71'

B. Calderón← A. Soto

77'

A. García← O. Peña

Honduras

Costa

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⚽

▼

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Manager: L. Alvarado

56'▲J. Macías←▼E. Rocha

56'▲E. Arzú←▼M. Aceituno

69'▲K. Güiti←▼J. Contreras

70'▲K. Kolton←▼I. Castillo

77'▲A. García←▼O. Peña

Honduras U20 substitutes

19Macías9Arzú18Güiti15Kolton10García20Núñez12Valdez4Tatum2Mencia

Manager: V. Quesada

56'▲S. Johnson←▼K. Ríos

65'▲F. Alemán←▼D. Rodriguez

65'▲E. Escoe←▼J. Bennette

65'▲A. Salmerón←▼T. Arias

71'▲B. Calderón←▼A. Soto

Costa Rica U20 substitutes

12Johnson19Alemán20Escoe16Salmerón4Calderón1Madriz15Tellería8Pérez