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Homeboyz vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

Homeboyz
Homeboyz
FT
4 – 0
Western Stima
Western Stima
S. Wakanya 68'
D. Okoth 16'
G. Odiwuor 10'
A. Opoku 3'
5/22/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 17Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Homeboyz48%
×Draw28%
Western Stima24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homeboyz
1.37
Western Stima
0.89

Homeboyz creates 54% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 52 away

creates per match

Homeboyz
1.41
Western Stima
0.94

allows per match

Homeboyz
0.84
Western Stima
1.33

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw
76%
Homeboyz or Western Stima
72%
Draw or Western Stima
52%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+
23%
Western Stima wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals
75%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
40%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
16%
Western Stima 1+ goals
59%
Western Stima 2+ goals
22%
Western Stima 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)
66%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 145 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.41 + Western Stima defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Western Stima attack 0.94 + Homeboyz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Homeboyz scores more
48%
level
28%
Western Stima scores more
24%

Homeboyz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Opoku
10'
G. Odiwuor
16'
D. Okoth
68'
S. Wakanya

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Homeboyz 4–0 Western Stima

Homeboyz beat Western Stima 4-0 in FKF Premier League on May 22, 2021.

Goals: A. Opoku (3'), G. Odiwuor (10'), D. Okoth (16'), S. Wakanya (68').

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega.