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Homeboyz vs Vihiga Bullets — FKF Premier League 2018

Homeboyz
Homeboyz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
2/25/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 15Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Homeboyz62%
×Draw22%
Vihiga Bullets16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homeboyz
1.89
Vihiga Bullets
0.83

Homeboyz creates 128% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 35 away

creates per match

Homeboyz
1.41
Vihiga Bullets
0.83

allows per match

Homeboyz
0.84
Vihiga Bullets
2.37

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw
84%
Homeboyz or Vihiga Bullets
78%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
38%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+
37%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals
85%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
56%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
29%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
56%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
20%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)
80%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 146 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.41 + Vihiga Bullets defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.89

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.83 + Homeboyz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Homeboyz scores more
62%
level
22%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
16%

Homeboyz at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Homeboyz vs Vihiga Bullets

Homeboyz beat Vihiga Bullets 1-0 in FKF Premier League on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega.