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Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Homeboyz
Homeboyz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
3/10/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 22Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Homeboyz44%
×Draw30%
Ulinzi Stars26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homeboyz
1.18
Ulinzi Stars
0.85

Homeboyz creates 39% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 146 away

creates per match

Homeboyz
1.41
Ulinzi Stars
0.86

allows per match

Homeboyz
0.84
Ulinzi Stars
0.95

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par
Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Ulinzi Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw
74%
Homeboyz or Ulinzi Stars
70%
Draw or Ulinzi Stars
56%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+
19%
Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals
69%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
33%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
12%
Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
57%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
21%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)
62%
Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 146 matches

Ulinzi Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.95 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.41 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ulinzi Stars attack 0.86 + Homeboyz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Homeboyz scores more
44%
level
30%
Ulinzi Stars scores more
26%

Homeboyz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars

Homeboyz beat Ulinzi Stars 2-0 in FKF Premier League on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.