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Homeboyz vs Sofapaka — FKF Premier League 2018

Homeboyz
Homeboyz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sofapaka
Sofapaka
2/20/2026FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 23Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Homeboyz45%
×Draw29%
Sofapaka26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homeboyz
1.27
Sofapaka
0.89

Homeboyz creates 43% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 147 away

creates per match

Homeboyz
1.41
Sofapaka
0.94

allows per match

Homeboyz
0.84
Sofapaka
1.14

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par
Sofapaka+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Sofapaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw
74%
Homeboyz or Sofapaka
71%
Draw or Sofapaka
55%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+
21%
Sofapaka wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals
72%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
36%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
14%
Sofapaka 1+ goals
59%
Sofapaka 2+ goals
22%
Sofapaka 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)
63%
Sofapaka (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 146 matches

Sofapaka away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.14 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.41 + Sofapaka defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sofapaka attack 0.94 + Homeboyz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Homeboyz scores more
45%
level
29%
Sofapaka scores more
26%

Homeboyz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Homeboyz vs Sofapaka

Homeboyz beat Sofapaka 2-0 in FKF Premier League on February 20, 2026.

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega.