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Homeboyz vs Police — FKF Premier League 2018

Homeboyz
Homeboyz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Police
Police
G. Otunga 47'
M. Shumah 8' (pen)
M. Bajaber 14'
5/14/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 31Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Homeboyz36%
×Draw31%
Police33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homeboyz
1.03
Police
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 75 away

creates per match

Homeboyz
1.40
Police
1.07

allows per match

Homeboyz
0.85
Police
0.67

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw
67%
Homeboyz or Police
69%
Draw or Police
64%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+
14%
Police wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals
64%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
28%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
9%
Police 1+ goals
62%
Police 2+ goals
25%
Police 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)
53%
Police (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.85 · 144 matches

Police away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.40 + Police defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Police attack 1.07 + Homeboyz defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Homeboyz scores more
36%
level
31%
Police scores more
33%

Homeboyz at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. ShumahPenalty
14'
M. Bajaber
47'
G. Otunga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Homeboyz vs Police

Homeboyz beat Police 2-1 in FKF Premier League on May 14, 2025.

Goals: M. Shumah (8' pen), M. Bajaber (14'), G. Otunga (47').

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.