Homeboyz 0–1 Nairobi City Stars: Result & Stats

Homeboyz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nairobi City Stars

12/22/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 15Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Homeboyz45%

×Draw28%

Nairobi City Stars27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HomeboyzExpected goals in this matchNairobi City Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.93

Homeboyz

1.30

Nairobi City Stars

0.93

Homeboyz creates 40% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 84 away

1.41

creates per match

1.02

0.84

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Homeboyz

1.41

Nairobi City Stars

1.02

allows per match

Homeboyz

0.84

Nairobi City Stars

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Nairobi City Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw

73%

Homeboyz or Nairobi City Stars

72%

Draw or Nairobi City Stars

55%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+

21%

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals

73%

Homeboyz 2+ goals

37%

Homeboyz 3+ goals

14%

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals

61%

Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals

24%

Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)

63%

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 146 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.41 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.02 + Homeboyz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Homeboyz scores more

45%

level

28%

Nairobi City Stars scores more

27%

Homeboyz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff