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Homeboyz vs Kenya Police — FKF Premier League 2018

Homeboyz
Homeboyz
FT
1 – 0
Kenya Police
Kenya Police
9/26/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 2Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Homeboyz39%
×Draw29%
Kenya Police32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homeboyz
1.16
Kenya Police
1.02

Homeboyz creates 14% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 10 away

creates per match

Homeboyz
1.41
Kenya Police
1.20

allows per match

Homeboyz
0.84
Kenya Police
0.90

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par
Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Kenya Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw
68%
Homeboyz or Kenya Police
71%
Draw or Kenya Police
61%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+
16%
Kenya Police wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals
69%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
32%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
11%
Kenya Police 1+ goals
64%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
27%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)
55%
Kenya Police (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 146 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.41 + Kenya Police defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.16

Kenya Police attack 1.20 + Homeboyz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Homeboyz scores more
39%
level
29%
Kenya Police scores more
32%

Homeboyz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Homeboyz 1–0 Kenya Police

Homeboyz beat Kenya Police 1-0 in FKF Premier League on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega.